Fantasy related but good info...
Dose: C.J.'s Milestone
There are nights when the fantasy landscape changes in sudden and severe bursts, and usually a busy 11-game slate on Hump Day is enough to move the cheese all the way into a different maze.
Wednesday was not that night. Sure, there was a 40-point scoring night from C.J. Miles, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul went nuts, John Kuester is still coaching, Keith Smart might not be for long, and the Heat lost and the recently re-installed sky at American Airlines Arena fell in Miami once again.
I ain't gonna lie. It was sort of a snoozer.
But that's probably the perfect backdrop for what has been fantasy basketball's biggest season to date. We've had the biggest trade deadline in league history, an information revolution at owners' fingertips, and storylines that only David Stern could preside over.
Meanwhile, your rabid scouring for news heading into the fantasy playoffs still holds the Rotoworld site hostage, with only Chase Utley cracking the basketball dominated top-10 searches over the past week – and baseball's Opening Day just a fortnight away.
So why not let the pot simmer a bit before the top blows off?
Teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, resting their guys, trying new things at the last moment, playing for ping pong balls, limping across the finish line, finding out who they are, and in some places the NBA Cares more about the champagne room than they do the locker room. Fair or not, sometimes fantasy fortunes swing when the league's best player plays it safe, or when a guy goes fishing with Kenny and Chuck in March.
I played (and won) a big money contest in football that uses Week 17 to decide who goes to the finals, and while that is an extreme example, basketball is no different than any other sport in which fantasy titles are decided by guys like C.J. Miles, Jordan Crawford, Andray Blatche, Marcus Thornton, and Steve Nash's pelvis.
Now is not the time in which the best player or team wins. Now is the time that the most diligent owner wins.
If you're competing and keeping up with the Joneses, you're tired. So are your opponents. The NCAA Tournament starts today and it's St. Patrick's Day. There are only three games tonight. I can't think of three better reasons to grab the green war paint and scratch a day off the calendar.
But now is not that time. You're either in your playoffs or close, and your labor of love is either going to kiss you back or backhand you – and it's your choice whether or not you show up with bells on or get your bell rung. So maybe a somewhat slow Wednesday night is what everybody needed before the eye of the storm passes. Just don't let Wednesday night fool you, we're just getting started around here.
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C.J.'s Milestone
C.J. Miles set a Jazz record for scoring in a regulation game last night, dropping a career-high 40 points on 14-of-18 shooting (including six treys) with four rebounds and two assists, immediately after Ty Corbin named him the starting shooting guard going forward. Before last night's extravaganza, he had averaged 19.0 points, 5.7 boards, 2.5 assists, 1.8 threes, and 1.5 steals in six starts this season – and with the state of Andrei Kirilenko's back, Raja Bell's toe injury and general ineffectiveness, Paul Millsap's knee, Devin Harris' ever-present injury risk, and the lack of depth in Utah – Miles should have been owned before last night's eruption.
Chances are if you're reading this for the first time, he is long gone, but if not he should be owned in all leagues going forward.Update: It was previously reported by multiple sources that he set a Jazz record, but the Mailman Karl Malone owns the Jazz record with a 61-point game in which he hit 21-of-26 field goals and 19-of-23 free throws. Thanks to Geoff Buchan for pointing that out.
The Smart Money is on Curry
Tim Kawakami is a lightning rod for criticism in the Bay Area, but as a long-time Warriors fan, he is a sort-of cult hero among us poor souls that really dig in and follow the Ws. Among the 101 problems the franchise has, he has been all over the problem with having Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry starting in the same backcourt, whereas some Warriors fans are simply happy to have two guys that make amazing plays nightly. Now some of the shine has been stripped this season from Curry, whose choir boy image heading into the NBA was enhanced by a Cinderella-like run in the NCAA Tourney, a well-liked NBA player for a dad, and a mom that got more air time in the stands than Dick Vitale did on the court in his name-making tourney run.
This season, he has been pouty and his defensive liabilities have been on an island for all to see, and Keith Smart has spelled (read: punished) Curry with Acie Law, who almost played his way out of the league before this year. To Law's credit, he has been serviceable in his time on the court, but you can't take a franchise player off the court without raising eyebrows. Last night, after he played an increasingly-normal 32 minutes with just 10 points on 4-of-10 shooting with five assists and nothing else – Kawakami tweeted that 'one of the many reasons that Smart won't be coaching the Warriors next season, this thing with Steph Curry will be No. 1 or 2.'
Now Curry has been an elite, albeit frustrating, fantasy play all season long. But this situation bears watching, and could come to a head at any time. Smart could read the writing on the wall and fall in line, or he could dig a trench. My guess is that it will be the former, but wouldn't it be a kicker if it was the latter.
On a side note, I named my NBC March Madness NCAA bracket 'Stephen Curry's Mom' – because she's clearly good luck, and you can also enter and compete against the rest of America for some awesome prizes here.
Boston Brick Wall
The Celtics turned away the Pacers last night, which in of itself isn't news, but we saw the first signs of the Celtics' fantasy engine stalling at the worst possible time. Specifically, Rajon Rondo's owners should be concerned after Kevin Garnett declared that Rondo was playing hurt, and he scored no points on two shot attempts with no rebounds, eight assists, two steals, and one block. He tweaked his ankle on Monday, and has stubbornly played through a number of injuries this season, and the Celtics are among the most conservative teams in the league when it comes to injuries. Rondo should be considered a medium-to-high shutdown risk for at least a few games prior to 'dead-week,' though he'll probably demand to play through his ailments.
We also saw the first signs of minute reductions for the Big Three in Boston, with Ray Allen playing 27 minutes on his way to 12 points, three boards, and two threes, Paul Pierce playing 28 minutes with 20 points and a full stat line, and Kevin Garnett playing 25 minutes with 10 points, four rebounds, and a block. Meanwhile, Jeff Green played 27 minutes and scored 19 points on 6-of-9 shooting with three rebounds, no assists, three blocks, and a three, and Glen Davis scored nine points with nine rebounds and a block in 28 minutes. Of the two, I'm more interested in owning Big Baby since his role is more established and needed going forward for the Celtics, but I wouldn't rule out Green for some serviceable lines like this, either. As for the Big Three + Rondo, there's not a lot that owners can do down the stretch, and their schedule is among the best, but my advice is to not bury your head down the stretch and auto-start them.
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Today in Kuester
Now five games out of the playoff picture, it's safe to assume that Kuester has no intentions of forming a cohesive set of roles, but that's old news. And really, there's no 'new news,' but there is enough value in Detroit for owners to care about, and sadly fantasy fortunes are going to shift on the whims of 'Q.'
Last night's game brought us a new wrinkle, which was Rodney Stuckey getting sent back to the bench and going on a shooting strike, or so it looked, as he attempted just one shot but handed out a career-high 14 assists. At one point Q yelled at him to shoot, which brings back memories of the Bad News Bears when the Yankees pitcher lets Engelberg run around the bases while hiding the ball from his teammates. Your guess is as good as mine with what's going to happen night-to-night, but Stuckey in particular is joining Tracy McGrady as the riskier plays among the bunch. McGrady started at PG and scored seven points with one rebound, four assists, a steal, a block, and a three, and remains the type of player you only want to use if you're desperate. The good news is that some consistency has been developed out of Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince, with Hamilton scoring 24 points and a relatively full line by his standards, and Prince posting 22 points to make five consecutive games between the 12 and 22-point mark. Starting them right now is only halfway crazy, and keep in mind that Hamilton will miss Friday, and as a result his tenuous grip on value could be in jeopardy. As usual, the exception to the Kuester conundrum was Greg Monroe, who scored 21 points with 10 points, five assists, one steal, and one block. He's quietly emerging as a solid fantasy center at just the right time, and no, I'm not that worried about Ben Wallace's effect on him, either.
Pelvic Instability and the Playoff Prescriptions
First off, if I was naming a band, I would just go with 'pelvic instability.' Does that really need any explanation? Now if I had to give a heading to a bit of fantasy analysis, I would add the term 'playoff prescriptions,' because Steve Nash's pelvis is about to cause owners headaches. And like any good heavily marketed prescription drug in the United States, the subsequent players may cause irritability, drowsiness, fantasy face-palming, and if they cause an erection that lasts more than four hours you probably need a break from the whole 'fantasy basketball' thing.
So with the Suns behind Memphis by three games for the No. 8 slot, and with Utah and Houston ahead of them in the chase, Nash's owners will want to watch the standings closer than ever. He returned to action last night and scored eight points with 10 assists in 35 minutes against Chris Paul and the Hornets, but he faded into the background and didn't look all that healthy. I would suggest to all Nash owners that they go out and grab Aaron Brooks, no matter how underconfident and ineffective he has looked at times, and for those owners needing a PG or those with roster space – stashing Brooks isn't the worst idea right now.
Now the side effect of a less-than 100 percent Nash doesn't just stop there. Vince Carter, Channing Frye, Marcin Gortat, and Jared Dudley will be asked to pick up the slack until Nash is 100 percent, if that ever happens. Carter has pulled his magic act out for one more season, leaving us all to believe he was dead to rights a week or so back, only to post yet another solid night with 21 points, four rebounds, three assists, and five 3-point buckets. If we're looking for the cause of his recent play, look no further than Nash's issues. Jared Dudley also got into the act last night, scoring 25 points with eight rebounds and five threes of his own. Dudley has been a risky play even with Channing Frye out, but the confluence of any absence by Frye and Nash could be enough to put him on the radar down the stretch.
As for Frye, he reports that he is targeting Friday for his return, but I'm not fully convinced yet that he'll be ready to go. He should be owned in all leagues, however, because it does sound like he'll be returning soon and has way too much upside to be sitting on the waiver wire. And if you're holding Hakim Warrick, you can safely drop him after last night's zero-point, 17-minute outing, as he has officially crashed and burned after showing so much promise.
Two Buck Chucks
Like that five dollar bottle (or box) of wine you bought to impress that special someone, you woke up the next day after starting your Bucks with a hangover and little recollection of why you did it? Whether it's relying on known injury-risk Andrew Bogut as your big man, drinking out of Delfino's dirty glass, waking up with a Maggette Moustache drawn on your face, learning you ate three-day old Salmons directly off your unclean coffee table -- there's a ton to worry about here. Bogut missed last night's critical game with a migraine headache, and there isn't much he or anybody else can do about it. Brandon Jennings (23 points, eight assists) and John Salmons (22 points and a full line) had good nights, but the former is sure to bury your FG percentage soon enough and the latter may have Michael Redd, Corey Maggette, Ersan Ilyasova, Drew Gooden, and Chris Douglas-Roberts ferrying away minutes and touches down the road.
Chris Paul to Me: Shut up
I told owners to consider selling before Chris Paul's nosedive in the middle-third of the season, and then more recently cautioned folks to consider selling him for any first round talent, and even said I would consider second and third round talent depending on the guy. I was right on the first prediction, but Paul has me destroyed in the second act, and had another huge night with 26 points, five rebounds, nine assists, and three steals. Maybe it was the time off, or the rumors pissed him off, or both. And while I'm not 100 percent comfortable about his health, he's a guy that I wish was on my team right now – and that's all there is to say about that.
Jumping back on the chuckwagon
Chuck Hayes has had a nice year, and with Houston practically begging for a big man at the trading deadline, his future was very much in doubt. We now know that Houston was not able to bring in a competitive big man, and Hayes has quietly trucked along with his versatile blend of production. Quiet wasn't the operative word last night, however, as Hayes led the Rockets to a win over the Charlotte Bobcats, as he scored nine points with a season-high tying 17 rebounds, seven assists, three steals, and one block. He had 21 points and nine boards in the game before that, and it goes without saying that he should be owned in all formats, though all Rockets are going to be tricky to use in a two-game Week 22 schedule.
Perhaps of more consequence to owners is Luis Scola's knee injury, which I haven't liked the sound of since it happened. With Houston in must-win territory to make the playoffs, the fact that he hasn't been able to practice tells me that it's not just a minor knee sprain. And since he is a warrior, everybody (Houston included) is giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can heal up and play, but should the injury just be too much to overcome or Houston fall out of playoff contention, his season could go south at precisely the wrong time. Patrick Patterson followed up his clunker from Monday with 12 points, 10 rebounds, and one block last night, and has shown enough flashes of production to be well worth watching or even stashing should Scola not practice today.
With Houston pulling to within 2.5 games of No. 8 Memphis, the Bobcats are heading in the other direction and the loss kept them 0.5 games behind Indiana for the last slot in the East. Stephen Jackson was atrocious last night, hitting just 2-of-14 shots (0-for-5 from deep) on his way to six points, four rebounds, and four assists, but said his body felt fine. Assuming he's telling the truth, he should be in line for a big finish, but admittedly I don't know if I believe him. Aside from his hamstring, he dealt with a sore thigh last night, and he's probably going to stumble across the finish line and crash whenever the Bobcats' playoff hopes do.
Gerald Henderson's run as a solid fantasy asset may be coming to an end with Jackson back up and running, as he scored just eight points on 3-of-11 shooting with four rebounds, two assists, and a block. The minutes are going to be there, but the touches he had when he was posting second round 8-cat value are a thing of the past, which will lead to inconsistent results. In other shaky Bobcat news, Tyrus Thomas (knee) was a game-time decision and ended up playing last night, scoring six points with five rebounds, one steal, and two blocks in just 16 minutes. It feels like we've done this before because we have – his entire career. He's still worth owning to see where this all heads, but owners need to be ready to ditch him should he fall into his normal pattern of disappointment.
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The Anaheim Royals
One of the local blogs here that covers the Kings probably bit off more than they could chew when trying to convince the local fans to rally to save their team. A clumsy and mostly absent PR movement city-wide failed to motivate local politicians, who missed the boat when calculating the math, but will have their principles of not using public funds to fund arenas to keep them warm at night. It's pretty simple when you think about it. The Kings bring in 'x' amount of money. If you are comfortable losing that, then by all means do nothing. This, of course, is what the local politicians did, and if I'm running for office anytime soon I'd probably lead with that first, second, and third when the local economy takes a dump over the next five years. Recently, the Maloofs filed for a trademark on the aforementioned team name, among others, and sadly one of the NBA's best small-market fan bases is probably going to lose their team.
Now relating it to fantasy, I'm pleasantly surprised that Tyreke Evans is going to resume practicing, since he has very little incentive to gut it out for a fan base in Anaheim that probably doesn't know who he is. Paul Westphal said today that he will play limited minutes at the end of next week, which sounds reasonable, but isn't doing a ton of favors for owners right now. He's still worth owning in all formats, but if you're team needs a productive player right now, perhaps your team isn't the one that should own him, unfortunately. The good news is that Marcus Thornton and Beno Udrih's outlooks aren't destroyed by this news, as in a best-case scenario Evans gets up to full speed near the end of the fantasy playoffs. Any setbacks, mood swings, or lack of motivation by Tyreke, and both could hold their value throughout the end of the year.
Four Quarters of Fury
First Quarter: Things are about to get crowded in Denver, which is something owners have avoided with injuries to Danilo Gallinari and Arron Afflalo, and Afflalo returned last night to his normal role and production. J.R. Smith was almost left scoreless before erupting for 15 points in the final 10 minutes, and owners would be wise not to count on him for production going forward. Once Gallinari returns, you can expect the good vibes being felt by Ty Lawson, Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler, and Kenyon Martin to turn a bit sour. In Atlanta, The Hawks just don't seem to care that much, as they got beat at home by Denver, and the best line of the night belonged to Zaza Pachulia, who scored 19 points with 10 boards and a block. While that is a fluke, the repeated disappointing performances by Jeff Teague, Kirk Hinrich, and Joe Johnson do not appear to be. I'm not hesitating to drop Teague for any hot free agent right now, and while I'm a bit (read: a bit) more guarded with Hinrich, he can go, too. The Hawks are what happens when your best players aren't leaders. For Philly, Elton Brand scored 19 points with 12 boards and helped limit Blake Griffin to his fifth straight game without a double-double, which goes to show you, don't sell your soul to Kia to win a dunk contest. Andre Iguodala played through his knee issue but his numbers were somewhat down, as he scored nine points with five rebounds and eight assists. Jrue Holiday picked up the slack with 20 points, four boards, and nine assists, which could become a theme if Iggy isn't okay.
Second Quarter: Tyler Hansbrough hit just 4-of-14 FGs last night with KG trying to prove a point that Pyscho T isn't all that crazy, but he did manage to double-double with 10 points, 11 boards, and a vicious dunk. Darren Collison survived the Boston Brick Wall with 10 points and nine assists, but outside of a fluky performance by Josh McRoberts (14 points, 11 boards) and an encouraging outing from Paul George (15 points, seven boards, three treys, three steals), the Pacers were mostly harmless last night. I'm not buying a turnaround for George, but there is a bit of upside lurking there. In Toronto, Leandro Barbosa is hot again, and scored another 18 points with a few goodies last night, and he should be owned in most formats. Otherwise, I'm generally concerned about the Raps for what Jay Triano could do down the stretch, and also because the injury-prone guys don't have much to play for. Andrea Bargnani should hold his value, but Jose Calderon isn't exactly a picture of overall health, and the PF situation is dicey at best. In L.A. the pendulum continued to shift toward DeAndre Jordan, who hit all six of his shots and finished with 16 points with 15 boards, a steal, and a block, while Chris Kaman had just eight points and three boards in 19 minutes. Jordan is the guy to own right now, but I'd try to be patient with Kaman, as the pendulum could swing back and leave you with a productive big man.
Third Quarter: Dwight Howard posted a 30-20 game with 31 points, 22 rebounds, two steals, and three blocks, but in the 'what's new' department he hit just 13-of-24 FTs and had five turnovers. Maybe when he cools it on the latter I'll jump up and down when the former occurs. Hedo Turkoglu posted a 19-4-5-3-1 line last night, which looks great until you realize eight of his points came in overtime. Gilbert Arenas hasn't taken charge of the J.J. Redick injury, scoring just five points, but at least Otis Smith helped out a friend. Ryan Anderson went back to the bench, and hit just 2-of-8 shots and one three, but grabbed 13 rebounds with three assists and two steals. He's worth a look if he has been dropped, given his propensity for a fantasy friendly game when he's on. Kendrick Perkins lasted just 20 minutes before fouling out last night, and I still see him being a double-double type guy with a block or two per game when he gets it figured out. In Houston, Chase Budinger scored 19 points with five assists and two threes, which is to be expected, and owners not concerned about Week 22 should stash him for his subsequent four-game week. Dirk Nowitzki brought back the Mavs with 34 points and 13 rebounds after the Warriors jumped out to an early 18-point lead, and Roddy Beaubois made his first noise this year with 18 points, four assists, and four steals in 37 minutes. He's worth a look, but I'm generally discouraged by the log-jam of talent in Dallas and the fact that this came against a sloppy Warriors squad. Monta Ellis went off early and finished with 26 points and 11 assists, while Dorell Wright disappeared with 14 points and not much else.
Fourth Quarter: Kevin Love got his 63rd double-double with 22 points and 11 boards, and his knee looks okay, but we'll be watching it for the rest of the year. Anthony Randolph got 15 minutes of garbage time, and posted 10 points, eight boards, one steal, and one block. And for the millionth time, I don't care. Call me when he does it twice in a row. Devin Harris played through his hamstring injury, and actually got to sit out the fourth quarter with the game in hand, but I have to wonder how his teammates feel about him leaving Monday's overtime game if he was good to play Wednesday? Paul Millsap will practice today, and that's a bit of bad news for Al Jefferson, who had another big game with 26 points and 11 boards last night. Big Al will continue to be the focus for Utah, but Millsap's presence will bring him back to reality a tiny bit. The Sacramento big men continued to be a force against the Cavs, with DeMarcus Cousins posting 11 points, 16 boards, five assists, two steals, and a block despite a 5-of-19 FG mark, and Samuel Dalembert scored 16 points with 10 boards, a steal, and two blocks. While they're not going to make it pretty, both should be in most lineups going forward. Joining them on the stat sheet was Marcus Thornton, who had 23 points and five boards with four treys, and Beno Udrih who had 14 points and eight assists. In Cleveland, Ramon Sessions had what may be his last truly useful line for a bit with 20 points, five boards, and six assists, with Baron Davis possibly playing tonight and cutting into his load. As usual, owners should do whatever they can to hang onto Sessions with Davis' health and motivation always in question.
Thursday Night Lights
Chicago heads to New Jersey, Memphis heads to New York, and Cleveland goes to Portland. For Chicago, Joakim Noah (illness) will play and Carlos Boozer (ankle) will not, and it's likely that Kurt Thomas will start and be worth a look in a spot-start. Taj Gibson, on the other hand, is not as trustworthy and should be avoided wherever possible unless he starts somehow. The Nets will get Damion James (concussion) and he will start, so downgrade Sasha Vujacic a small amount if you would like as he goes back to the bench. The local paper has listed Marc Gasol (ankle) as the starter in their game preview, but we'd like to get better confirmation before calling him a go, so stay tuned. For New York, we'll be watching to see if Chauncey Billups can get on track following his thigh/knee injury, and to see if Toney Douglas can hold some value off the bench. We'll be watching the Cavs to see how Baron Davis gets implemented, and also to see if Luke Harangody can make noise for a second-straight night. And in Portland, we'll be keeping an eye on the new lineup that has Gerald Wallace starting and Marcus Camby coming off the bench. Chances are, roles won't change too much. See you guys on Twitter!
